2022 is coming to an end, and the impact of the epidemic this year is not small. It is commendable for many small and medium-sized enterprises to survive. It doesn’t matter if your performance is not satisfactory, you will have a chance if you survive. Come, read the article of SINE ENERGY and predict the trends of the photovoltaic industry next year!
1. The supply of silicon materials has increased significantly, and the price reduction of the industrial chain has promoted the release of demand for ground power stations.
According to statistics from the Silicon Industry Branch, by the end of 2022, domestic polysilicon production capacity will increase from 520,000 tons at the beginning of this year to 1.26 million tons, an increase of 1.4 times. At the end of the year, it increased by 78.6%.
If we assume that the silicon material output in 2023 will be 1.46 million tons and the silicon consumption will be 2.6g/w, then the silicon material link can support a maximum of about 540GW modules in 2023, and the silicon material supply will be very sufficient throughout the year. However, since the new production capacity will be concentrated in the second half of 2023, against the background of strong demand next year, the supply of silicon materials may still be slightly tight in the first half of next year, and in the second half of the year, silicon materials will turn into an overall surplus.
As the high-priced silicon material in the past has backlogged the profit margins of other links in the industrial chain, with the release of silicon material supply, the pressure of components to sell profits to downstream power stations and the pressure of components to reduce the price of auxiliary materials will decrease. The price reduction of silicon materials next year will bring In the future, the redistribution of industry profits will benefit integrated component companies and non-silicon links.
2.In 2023, N-type solar cells will usher in a period of rapid development, and the cost performance is the core of all aspects.
As the efficiency of Perc batteries approaches the limit, the iteration of N-type battery technology accelerates. According to the calculations of the authoritative testing organization Hamelin Solar Energy Research Institute in Germany, the theoretical limit efficiencies of PERC, HJT, and TOPCon three types of battery technologies are 24.5%, 28.5%, and 28.7% (double-sided).
As the efficiency of P-type PERC cells approaches the theoretical limit and the efficiency of Perc cells approaches the limit, the iteration of N-type cell technology has accelerated. There are three main routes for next-generation technology: TOPCON, HJT, and IBC. In 2023, the cost reduction and efficiency increase of N-type new technologies, and the coordinated development of industrial chain support will still be the main theme of development.
Cost, yield, and stability of conversion efficiency are the key to mass production of N-type. Among the three technologies, the production cost of topcon mass production is close to the production cost of perc battery, and the cost performance is more prominent. According to PVlinkinfo, topcon is expected to have a production capacity of 78.6GW by the end of 2022, and topcon is expected to dominate N-type cell shipments in the next few years.
At present, the development of HJT technology has entered a bottleneck period. Global companies have announced that the built-up production capacity is 11.6GW. Although the planned production capacity is more, the actual construction capacity is less. The main reason is that the current production cost of HJT is relatively high, and the conversion efficiency of TOPCON mass production has not widened the gap, so the cost performance of investment in the new HJT production line still needs to be observed. In the future, the mass production of HJT still needs technological progress, process optimization and cost reduction of related supporting industrial chains. It is expected that the cost reduction and efficiency increase of HJT in the future will mainly rely on the four main lines of “microcrystallization + thinning + silver paste reduction + equipment cost reduction” conduct.
Post time: Dec-12-2022