Silicon price decreased sharply

Silicon price decreased sharply

This week, the price of M6 monocrystalline silicon wafer (166mm/170μm) was in the range of 5.25-5.40 yuan/piece, and the average transaction price fell to 5.38 yuan/piece, a 4.94% week-on-week decrease; the price of M10 monocrystalline silicon wafer (182 mm/175μm) The range is between 6.20-6.45 yuan/piece, and the average transaction price dropped to 6.36 yuan/piece, a week-on-week decrease of 5.64%; the price range of G12 monocrystalline silicon wafers (210 mm/170μm) was between 8.70-9.00 yuan/piece, and the average transaction price remained unchanged. At 8.93 yuan/piece, the week-on-week ratio remained stable.

The main reason for the sharp drop in silicon wafer prices this week was that the original inventory of M10 was superimposed this week, which caused a certain degree of market panic and led to a sharp drop in the price of M6. Compared with mainstream silicon wafers, the transaction volume of G12 is not large, and the price is stable. From the perspective of inventory, the market estimates that there are more than 100 million 182mm-size silicon wafers (about 1GW) in inventory to be digested. This is mainly due to the normal stock circulation of enterprises and a certain silicon wafer company’s hoarding of goods. The reason for the hoarding is expected Q4 installed capacity is optimistic, so the company will convert the output silicon rods into inventory after the furnace model is converted, and will concentrate on slicing in the near future. From a supply point of view, the operating rates of the ten domestic monocrystalline silicon wafer companies that participated in the survey this week showed divergence. The operating rates of the two first-tier companies were maintained at 45% and 60%, respectively, and the operating rates of integrated enterprises dropped to 80%-90%. The operating rate of the remaining enterprises dropped to between 50% and 80%. From a demand perspective, as of this week, the battery plant operating rate is still 60%, indicating that the battery plant did not respond in time to the sudden price cut, and the annual profit and loss made the battery plant reluctant to make a profit. Looking at the situation of both ends of supply and demand, the shipment volume of silicon wafer manufacturers is actually very small this week due to low profits and inactive battery purchases. This also explains the recent claims that silicon wafers have a price per day.

From a cost point of view, the cost of M10 is about 5.8-6.1 yuan per piece (excluding logistics and other expenses), and the difference in price comes from the cost and scale advantages of first-line companies. The transaction price of M10 this week is 6.36 yuan/piece, and the net profit margin is only between 5%-8%. This profit level makes it difficult for third-party silicon wafer companies to continue, and the profit situation of integrated companies to ensure the component side is slightly optimistic.

Terminal demand has been sluggish recently, mainly because of high component prices, and orders that have been signed have been forced to postpone. However, after the price of silicon wafers fell this week, the operating rate of the component side rose instead of falling, proving that terminal demand is still strong, and first-line companies and integrated companies will not choose to wait and see. Therefore, it is expected that the group price side may simultaneously transmit the logic of price decline and volume increase, and after the terminal demand picks up, the price of silicon wafers will stop falling and stabilize.

Post time: Jun-03-2019